Yahoo Finance Could Vicinity Centres' (ASX:VCX) Weak Financials Mean That The Market Could Correct Its Share Price?
Most readers would already know that Vicinity Centres' (ASX:VCX) stock increased by 9.1% over the past three months. However, its weak financial performance indicators makes us a bit doubtful if that trend could continue. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Vicinity Centres' ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
Check out our latest analysis for Vicinity Centres
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Vicinity Centres is:
6.9% = AU$741m ÷ AU$11b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.07 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
A Side By Side comparison of Vicinity Centres' Earnings Growth And 6.9% ROE
When you first look at it, Vicinity Centres' ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 12% either. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 13% seen by Vicinity Centres over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.
So, as a next step, we compared Vicinity Centres' performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 21% in the same period.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is VCX fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.
Is Vicinity Centres Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Vicinity Centres has a very high three-year median payout ratio of 79%, implying that it retains only 21% of its profits. However, it's not unusual to see a REIT with such a high payout ratio mainly due to statutory requirements. Accordingly, this likely explains why its earnings have been shrinking.
In addition, Vicinity Centres has been paying dividends over a period of eight years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 82% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 6.3%.
Conclusion
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Vicinity Centres. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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