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Could The Market Be Wrong About GUD Holdings Limited (ASX:GUD) Given Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

It is hard to get excited after looking at GUD Holdings' (ASX:GUD) recent performance, when its stock has declined 10% over the past week. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Specifically, we decided to study GUD Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for GUD Holdings

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

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Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for GUD Holdings is:

16% = AU$44m ÷ AU$275m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.16 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

GUD Holdings' Earnings Growth And 16% ROE

At first glance, GUD Holdings seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 16%. Consequently, this likely laid the ground for the decent growth of 12% seen over the past five years by GUD Holdings.

Next, on comparing GUD Holdings' net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 13% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is GUD Holdings fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is GUD Holdings Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

While GUD Holdings has a three-year median payout ratio of 85% (which means it retains 15% of profits), the company has still seen a fair bit of earnings growth in the past, meaning that its high payout ratio hasn't hampered its ability to grow.

Additionally, GUD Holdings has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 77%. As a result, GUD Holdings' ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 18% for future ROE.

Conclusion

Overall, we are quite pleased with GUD Holdings' performance. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.