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Could The Market Be Wrong About AGL Energy Limited (ASX:AGL) Given Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) has had a rough three months with its share price down 9.8%. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. In this article, we decided to focus on AGL Energy's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for AGL Energy

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

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So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AGL Energy is:

13% = AU$1.0b ÷ AU$8.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.13 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

AGL Energy's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To start with, AGL Energy's ROE looks acceptable. Especially when compared to the industry average of 8.4% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. This certainly adds some context to AGL Energy's exceptional 42% net income growth seen over the past five years. However, there could also be other causes behind this growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that AGL Energy's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 8.1% in the same period, which is great to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about AGL Energy's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is AGL Energy Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

AGL Energy's significant three-year median payout ratio of 72% (where it is retaining only 28% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders.

Additionally, AGL Energy has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 78% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that AGL Energy's future ROE will drop to 4.9% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with AGL Energy's performance. Especially the high ROE, Which has contributed to the impressive growth seen in earnings. Despite the company reinvesting only a small portion of its profits, it still has managed to grow its earnings so that is appreciable. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.