Yahoo Finance Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
A week ago, Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE:FIX) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$1.5b, some 4.8% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$2.69, 35% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Comfort Systems USA
After the latest results, the five analysts covering Comfort Systems USA are now predicting revenues of US$6.67b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 22% to US$12.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.57b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.96 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$322, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Comfort Systems USA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$360 and the most bearish at US$280 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Comfort Systems USA is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Comfort Systems USA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Comfort Systems USA to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Comfort Systems USA following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$322, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Comfort Systems USA. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Comfort Systems USA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Comfort Systems USA that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
