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Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

The analysts covering Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the latest downgrade, the seven analysts covering Codan provided consensus estimates of AU$463m revenue in 2023, which would reflect a considerable 8.6% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to tumble 27% to AU$0.41 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$534m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.57 in 2023. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Codan

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earnings-and-revenue-growth

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 39% to AU$6.03. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Codan analyst has a price target of AU$13.06 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$4.10. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

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Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 8.6% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 22% per year. It's pretty clear that Codan's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

There might be good reason for analyst bearishness towards Codan, like concerns around earnings quality. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 1 other flag we've identified.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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