Yahoo Finance Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CWST) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.5% to US$90.82 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues came in at US$341m, in line with estimates, while Casella Waste Systems reported a statutory loss of US$0.07 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Casella Waste Systems
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Casella Waste Systems from seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.50b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 127% to US$0.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.73 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$104, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Casella Waste Systems at US$112 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$92.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.7% per year. So although Casella Waste Systems is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Casella Waste Systems. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$104, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Casella Waste Systems going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Casella Waste Systems is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
