Castle Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSTL), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGM. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Castle Biosciences’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's the opportunity in Castle Biosciences?
According to my valuation model, Castle Biosciences seems to be fairly priced at around 8.5% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Castle Biosciences today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $27.37, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Castle Biosciences’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of Castle Biosciences look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Castle Biosciences, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? CSTL seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on CSTL for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on CSTL should the price fluctuate below its true value.
If you'd like to know more about Castle Biosciences as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. While conducting our analysis, we found that Castle Biosciences has 3 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore these.
If you are no longer interested in Castle Biosciences, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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