Yahoo Finance Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. Just Recorded A 103% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Investors in Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:BNL) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.3% to close at US$15.23 following the release of its quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$105m were what the analysts expected, Broadstone Net Lease surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.35 per share, an impressive 103% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Broadstone Net Lease
Following last week's earnings report, Broadstone Net Lease's six analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$427.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 28% to US$0.69 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$430.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.70 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$17.83, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Broadstone Net Lease, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$14.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Broadstone Net Lease shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Broadstone Net Lease is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Broadstone Net Lease's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Broadstone Net Lease analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Broadstone Net Lease (of which 2 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
