Yahoo Finance BOK Financial Corporation Just Missed EPS By 39%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Shareholders might have noticed that BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to US$46.22 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$444m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 39% to hit US$0.88 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for BOK Financial
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering BOK Financial are now predicting revenues of US$1.80b in 2020. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.2% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 26% to US$4.70 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.78b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.82 in 2020. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$52.20, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on BOK Financial, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$66.00 and the most bearish at US$46.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BOK Financial's past performance and to peers in the same industry. Next year brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 7.2%, in line with its 6.5% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.9% per year. So although BOK Financial is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BOK Financial. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple BOK Financial analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for BOK Financial (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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