Yahoo Finance Bodycote plc (LON:BOY) Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Appear To Be Mixed : Is There A Clear Direction For The Stock?
Bodycote's (LON:BOY) stock is up by a considerable 12% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Bodycote's ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
See our latest analysis for Bodycote
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Bodycote is:
9.5% = UK£74m ÷ UK£782m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every £1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated £0.10 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
Bodycote's Earnings Growth And 9.5% ROE
At first glance, Bodycote seems to have a decent ROE. Yet, the fact that the company's ROE is lower than the industry average of 14% does temper our expectations. Further research shows that Bodycote's net income has shrunk at a rate of 18% over the last five years. Not to forget, the company does have a high ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So there might be other reasons for the earnings to shrink. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
However, when we compared Bodycote's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 7.0% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for BOY? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Bodycote Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
Bodycote's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 64% (or a retention ratio of 36%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent.
Moreover, Bodycote has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 44% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 12%, over the same period.
Conclusion
On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Bodycote can be open to many interpretations. Specifically, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a respectable rate of return. Investors may have benefitted, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. As discussed earlier, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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