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Bluechiip (ASX:BCT) Shareholders Have Enjoyed An Impressive 170% Share Price Gain

The last three months have been tough on Bluechiip Limited (ASX:BCT) shareholders, who have seen the share price decline a rather worrying 37%. But in three years the returns have been great. Indeed, the share price is up a very strong 170% in that time. It's not uncommon to see a share price retrace a bit, after a big gain. The fundamental business performance will ultimately dictate whether the top is in, or if this is a stellar buying opportunity.

Check out our latest analysis for Bluechiip

Bluechiip recorded just AU$1,025,052 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). Investors will be hoping that Bluechiip can make progress and gain better traction for the business, before it runs low on cash.

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As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Some Bluechiip investors have already had a taste of the sweet taste stocks like this can leave in the mouth, as they gain popularity and attract speculative capital.

Bluechiip had cash in excess of all liabilities of just AU$2.9m when it last reported (June 2019). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. Given how low on cash the it got, investors must really like its potential for the share price to be up 79% per year, over 3 years . The image below shows how Bluechiip's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image. You can see in the image below, how Bluechiip's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

ASX:BCT Historical Debt, February 10th 2020
ASX:BCT Historical Debt, February 10th 2020

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. One thing you can do is check if company insiders are buying shares. It's usually a positive if they have, as it may indicate they see value in the stock. You can click here to see if there are insiders buying.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Bluechiip's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Bluechiip hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 170% exceeds its share price return of 170%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Bluechiip shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 59% over one year. That's better than the annualised return of 8.5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bluechiip better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 7 warning signs for Bluechiip you should be aware of, and 3 of them make us uncomfortable.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.