Yahoo Finance Blackmores Limited Recorded A 6.0% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Blackmores Limited (ASX:BKL), which a week ago released some disappointing annual results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Blackmores missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of AU$619m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.58, falling short by 6.0% and 3.7% respectively. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Blackmores
After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Blackmores are now predicting revenues of AU$745.9m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a substantial 20% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 50% to AU$2.33. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$745.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$2.33 in 2023. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of AU$78.82, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Blackmores, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$101 and the most bearish at AU$70.50 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Blackmores shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Blackmores' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.4% over the past year. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Blackmores is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Blackmores going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here
