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Meet the stock market's winners & losers under president-elect Trump

“President Trump” has transformed the markets—literally overnight—and investment themes that will likely dominate for several months are already apparent. Here are the expected winners and losers.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) notched a 3.8% gain alst week, defying nearly all expectations of a severe market selloff following Trump’s election victory. But underneath the market’s hood, trillions of dollars are being shifted from projected losers to expected winners. Investors are taking note.

Rarely does this type of money reallocation, or sector rotation, occur so abruptly when the long-term trend is already bullish. Typically, these thematic changes happen after a steep and protracted market correction—and only become apparent weeks after the actual market bottom.

Here is how the major S&P 500 sectors have fared since Tuesday’s market close on election day.

Source: Yahoo Finance, TradeStation
Source: Yahoo Finance, TradeStation

Big banks are leading

The financial sector (XLF) is the clear winner. The top gainers among large cap stocks are dominated by the big banks based on two assumptions. First, Trump has made waves about rolling back Dodd-Frank, which, de facto, makes banks more interesting again instead of boring (how this is reconciled with claims to reinstate Glass-Steagall is yet to be determined).

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Second, the bond market is signalling both economic growth and price inflation ahead, which bodes well for the traditional bank model of borrowing low and lending high, while minimizing defaults. (Plus, Senator Elizabeth Warren will be “contained.”)

Rebuilding roads and bridges-to-somewhere

Second up are the industrials (XLI) — and to a slightly lesser extent, materials (XLB). Trump promises massive infrastructure spending. This is exactly the type of fiscal stimulus the IMF, World Bank, other NGOs, and the Federal Reserve itself have been pleading over the last two years for developed nations to deliver. They’ve given up on monetary policy and are pleading for help on the fiscal side. Regardless of whether or not you agree with this, construction and engineering are banking on this news.

The witch hunt in pharmaceuticals is over

At least, that’s what the market is pricing in. Big Pharma has been hammered over fears that its business model would be functionally eviscerated by another Clinton presidency. This is a typical junk-off-the-bottom rally. That which had been sold the most this year is rebounding—not unlike the big bank stocks in mid-2009.

Non-pharma biotech already had a nice growth story and is poised to ride the coattails of the sector strength.

Energy is not so much Trump-driven

Whatever you think about the veracity of any OPEC claim, it’s still driving the energy sector (XLE), as are the weekly supply and demand estimates. Trump’s anti-globalization rhetoric tends not to cross hairs with oil and gas. That might be in part because the US has become a net exporter of crude oil. Energy names at the bottom of the list tend to suffer from idiosyncratic risk.

Nevertheless—on a very rough basis—oil above $50 a barrel is constructive for energy names, while oil below $40 becomes a severe problem.

Trump’s war on tech

It might not be an all-out “war,” but Trump has been openly hostile toward the sector (XLK), calling its recent stock price ascendancy a “bubble.” He’s called out Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) by name and is openly against the H-1B visa program that Silicon Valley relies on.

Some of the big cap names like Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco (CSCO) and Alphabet (GOOGL) would benefit enormously from a cash repatriation tax holiday. But nonetheless, tech remains underwater post-election.

Real Estate

This is an interest rate play, pure and simple. Mortgage rates are going up, and REITs (XLRE) are going down.

Why is Coca-Cola down?

…and Kraft Heinz (KHC), Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Pepsico (PEP)?

Investors are not expecting big, international consumer staples (XLP) to benefit from Trump’s anti-globalization plans, which threatens extant trade agreements. In addition, these dividend darlings are not as attractive when the US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is quickly approaching the S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.15%.

Mark this on your calendar: The search for yield is officially over.

Utilities

Risk on.

The much-anticipated stock-by-stock ranking

Here’s how the largest 100 US public companies by market capitalization have performed—from Tuesday, just before the votes were counted, to the close Friday afternoon.

Rank

Ticker

Company

Sector

Return since election

Return year-to-date

1

WFC

Wells Fargo

Financial

13.57%

-4.86%

2

MS

Morgan Stanley

Financial

12.84%

20.97%

3

MET

Metlife Inc

Financial

12.13%

11.37%

4

GS

Goldman Sachs Grp

Financial

12.10%

13.16%

5

BAC

Bank of America Corporation

Financial

11.88%

13.01%

6

CELG

Celgene Corp

Healthcare

10.14%

-0.26%

7

CAT

Caterpillar Inc

Capital Goods

9.84%

36.86%

8

PNC

PNC Finl Svcs Grp

Financial

9.60%

11.13%

9

GD

General Dynamics Corp

Capital Goods

9.60%

22.71%

10

JPM

JPMorgan Chase & Co

Financial

9.51%

16.14%

11

PFE

Pfizer Inc

Healthcare

8.63%

0.96%

12

LMT

Lockheed Martin Corp

Capital Goods

8.35%

19.35%

13

BIIB

Biogen Inc

Healthcare

8.05%

4.26%

14

AMGN

Amgen Inc

Healthcare

7.65%

-8.19%

15

ABBV

AbbVie Inc

Healthcare

7.29%

6.52%

16

GM

General Motors Co

Consumer Cyclical

7.22%

0.03%

17

UNP

Union Pacific Corp

Transportation

6.90%

23.85%

18

USB

US Bancorp

Financial

6.49%

12.26%

19

BK

Bank of New York Mellon Corp

Financial

6.49%

13.37%

20

AIG

Amer Intl Grp

Financial

6.42%

2.18%

21

CMCSA

Comcast Cl A

Services

6.30%

17.77%

22

BMY

Bristol-Myers SQUIBB

Healthcare

6.04%

-18.05%

23

AGN

Allergan plc

Healthcare

6.01%

-33.58%

24

C

Citigrp Inc

Financial

5.83%

2.07%

25

MRK

Merck & Co

Healthcare

5.69%

21.07%

26

UTX

United Technologies

Capital Goods

5.30%

13.30%

27

AXP

American Express Co

Financial

5.11%

1.37%

28

BLK

Blackrock Inc’A’

Financial

5.01%

9.01%

29

LLY

Lilly (Eli)

Healthcare

4.93%

-7.82%

30

HD

Home Depot Inc

Services

4.51%

-1.81%

31

BA

Boeing Co

Capital Goods

4.44%

2.72%

32

LOW

Lowe’s Cos

Services

4.39%

-8.29%

33

GE

General Electric Co

Capital Goods

4.38%

-1.41%

34

IBM

Intl Business Machines Corp

Technology

3.93%

17.19%

35

CHTR

Charter Communications Inc

Services

3.90%

48.83%

36

DIS

Disney (Walt) Co

Services

3.50%

-7.04%

37

GILD

Gilead Sciences

Healthcare

3.24%

-24.46%

38

TJX

TJX Companies

Services

2.95%

6.32%

39

DHR

Danaher Corp

Technology

2.55%

14.97%

40

UNH

UnitedHealth Grp Inc

Financial

2.46%

24.46%

41

HON

Honeywell Intl

Capital Goods

2.38%

9.97%

42

MMM

3M Co

Capital Goods

2.37%

16.22%

43

COST

Costco Wholesale Corp

Services

2.24%

-7.52%

44

CVS

CVS Health Corp

Services

2.12%

-23.20%

45

WMT

Wal-Mart Stores

Services

2.06%

16.20%

46

UPS

United Parcel’B’

Transportation

1.96%

18.71%

47

FDX

FedEx Corp

Transportation

1.25%

23.22%

48

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

Healthcare

1.21%

15.33%

49

WBA

Walgreen Boots Alliance Inc

Services

1.20%

-4.82%

50

KMI

Kinder Morgan Inc

Utilities

1.18%

38.40%

51

CB

The Chubb Corp

Financial

1.17%

8.56%

52

CSCO

Cisco Systems

Technology

1.16%

15.46%

53

ORCL

Oracle Corp

Technology

0.82%

7.99%

54

ABT

Abbott Laboratories

Healthcare

0.78%

-10.62%

55

DOW

Dow Chemical

Basic Materials

0.41%

4.22%

56

XOM

Exxon Mobil

Energy

0.39%

9.87%

57

FOXA

Twenty-First Century Fox Inc A

Services

0.18%

-0.07%

58

TXN

Texas Instruments

Technology

0.14%

27.59%

59

MCD

McDonald’s Corp

Services

0.10%

-3.32%

60

DD

Dupont(E.I.)Denemours

Basic Materials

-0.07%

3.92%

61

SPG

Simon Ppty Grp

Services

-0.35%

-6.08%

62

INTC

Intel Corp

Technology

-0.37%

0.46%

63

ACN

Accenture PLC (Ireland) NEW

Technology

-0.53%

14.05%

64

NKE

Nike Inc Cl B

Consumer Cyclical

-0.61%

-18.77%

65

CVX

Chevron Corporation

Energy

-0.62%

18.53%

66

TMO

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc

Healthcare

-0.87%

6.61%

67

COP

ConocoPhillips

Energy

-0.88%

-5.89%

68

MA

Mastercard Inc

Financial

-1.02%

7.46%

69

V

Visa Inc

Services

-1.21%

5.58%

70

TWX

Time Warner

Services

-1.24%

34.19%

71

T

AT&T Inc

Services

-1.30%

6.10%

72

SBUX

Starbucks Corp

Services

-1.30%

-10.19%

73

SLB

Schlumberger Ltd

Energy

-1.48%

12.77%

74

QCOM

Qualcomm Inc

Technology

-2.04%

33.79%

75

VZ

Verizon Communications

Services

-2.06%

0.97%

76

EOG

EOG Resources

Energy

-2.09%

29.13%

77

AAPL

Apple Inc

Technology

-2.37%

3.01%

78

PCLN

The Priceline Grp Inc

Services

-2.37%

20.84%

79

MSFT

Microsoft Corp

Technology

-2.40%

6.38%

80

CRM

salesforce.com Inc

Technology

-2.56%

-4.86%

81

MDT

Medtronic plc

Healthcare

-2.69%

6.70%

82

OXY

Occidental Petro

Energy

-2.90%

-3.93%

83

RAI

Reynolds American Inc

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-3.32%

16.08%

84

PYPL

PayPal Hldgs Inc

Financial

-3.61%

10.72%

85

FB

Facebook Inc

Technology

-4.17%

13.74%

86

ADBE

Adobe Systems

Technology

-4.26%

10.46%

87

KO

Coca-Cola Co

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-4.31%

-4.49%

88

PG

Procter & Gamble Cc

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-4.44%

5.25%

89

GOOGL

Alphabet Inc Cl A

Technology

-4.98%

-0.83%

90

PEP

Pepsico Inc

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-5.09%

3.27%

91

AVGO

Broadcom Ltd

Technology

-5.28%

15.51%

92

DUK

Duke Energy Corporation

Utilities

-5.54%

5.39%

93

CL

Colgate-Palmolive Co

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-5.82%

1.20%

94

AMZN

Amazon.com Inc

Services

-6.16%

9.37%

95

MO

Altria Grp

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-6.20%

6.10%

96

NFLX

Netflix Inc

Services

-7.69%

0.35%

97

KHC

The Kraft Heinz Company

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-8.07%

11.61%

98

PM

Philip Morris Intl Inc

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-9.10%

1.18%

99

NEE

NextEra Energy Inc

Utilities

-9.32%

9.26%

100

MDLZ

Mondelez Int’l Inc Cl A

Consumer/Non-Cyclical

-10.54%

-8.21%