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Best case scenario for S&P 500 'may be coming into play': Stock Trader's Almanac

Stock market bulls regained control in May after April's decline interrupted an impressive five-month run from November to March, during which the market rose each month, with the S&P 500 gaining 25.3%.

Last month saw the market witness a brief correction of 3-6%, albeit faster than many had anticipated.

The rebound in May comes as economic and hawkish Federal Reserve concerns were swiftly replaced by unexpectedly mild economic and inflation readings, rekindling investor hopes for rate cuts.

This helped ease the 10-year yield and led to new all-time highs for major indexes, except for the Russell 2000.

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“We welcome it. Our portfolios are positioned well and tacking on additional gains. We have been bullish on 2024 since our Annual Forecast in December and maintained that all year,” Stock Trader’s Almanac commented in a recent note to clients.

“Our Base Case Scenario for 8-15% gain in 2024 is still on track, but I have to admit that our Best Case Scenario for 15-25% may be coming into play. However, perhaps the markets have gotten a little ahead of themselves and discretion is still the better part of valor,” it added.

The market analysis guide said that while the market is clearly stretched to the upside and prone to some reversion to the mean, this does not alter their outlook for further gains this year.

As such, Almanac does not expect the market to skyrocket from current levels, however, they also do not foresee a substantial downside either.

Instead, “another mild pullback or two and some more chop at most” appears more likely.

Overall, Stock Trader's Almanac notes that the market is overreacting in the short term and will likely do so again when new data disappoints investors.

“But it’s an election with a sitting president running against a previous president making uncertainty even lower, so the Worst Six Months are likely to be mild, trending higher with some ups and downs followed by a Q4 rally to even higher new highs,” it concluded.

The ‘Worst Six Months’ concept from Stock Trader's Almanac refers to the historical trend where the stock market tends to perform poorly from May to October compared to the November to April period.

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