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Is a Beat in Store for ExxonMobil (XOM) in Q4 Earnings?

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is set to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 1, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, ExxonMobil reported earnings of $1.58 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.57 owing to improved realized oil and natural gas prices as well as higher refining and chemical margins. ExxonMobil beat bottom-line estimates in the prior four reported quarters, the average surprise being 54.7%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.90 has witnessed one downward revision and four upward revisions in the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a massive improvement from the prior-year reported number.

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The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues of $82.9 billion indicates a 78.1% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Quantitative Model Suggests

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for ExxonMobil this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: ExxonMobil has an Earnings ESP of +5.51%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate for the quarter’s earnings is $2.01 per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $1.90. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: ExxonMobil currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Factors Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings

The pricing scenario of oil in the fourth quarter of 2021 has improved drastically from the prior-year period, thanks to the rolling out of coronavirus vaccines. The pricing environment of natural gas has also improved substantially in the December quarter as compared to the year-ago period. Rising oil and gas prices are likely to have aided ExxonMobil’s upstream operations.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings from upstream business is pegged at $5,776 million, suggesting a turnaround from a loss of $18,532 million in the year-ago quarter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

PBF Energy Inc. PBF has an Earnings ESP of +452.63% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PBF Energy is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s earnings is pegged at 11 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 102.4% from the prior-year reported figure.

Viper Energy Partners VNOM has an Earnings ESP of +12.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Viper Energy is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Viper Energy’s earnings is pegged at 20 cents per unit, suggesting an improvement of 66.7% over the prior-year reported figure.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has an Earnings ESP of +0.96% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Royal Dutch Shell is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Royal Dutch Shell’s earnings is pegged at $1.39 per share, suggesting a massive year-over-year improvement.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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