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Barclays, BNP, Deutsche Bank Earnings Hinge on Trading, Rates

(Bloomberg) -- Europe’s biggest banks pick up the baton this week after mixed results from Wall Street peers.

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With sector stocks trading near a six-year high, the outlook for lenders from Barclays Plc to BNP Paribas SA and Deutsche Bank AG may be ripe for a reset if earnings disappoint, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mar’Yana Vartsaba said.

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A combined €5 billion ($5.3 billion) has already been trimmed from 2024 revenue estimates for Barclays and BNP, and although the market has scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts, that may not be enough to prevent banks from reporting sluggish net interest income, she said.

Brewing giant Heineken NV likely benefited from resilient beer demand while cognac-maker Remy Cointreau SA grappled with excess inventory and weak consumer confidence in China.

German software supplier SAP SE and chemicals maker BASF SE are also due, as is beleaguered Swiss fintech Temenos AG.

Highlights to look out for:

Monday: SAP’s (SAP GY) cloud migration efforts may have pushed growth in new cloud bookings past the 25% mark for a fifth quarter, BI said. Increasing cloud demand could push constant-FX sales 9% higher, consensus shows. Management might elaborate on AI investments, although any sales boost will take time.

Tuesday: Temenos’s (TEMN SW) results might help restore investor confidence after a probe rejected allegations of financial misconduct by short-seller Hindenburg Research. But even if it delivers an estimated 7.1% revenue growth, there’s still a disconnect between the market and management over medium-term prospects, especially on free cash flow, BI’s Tamlin Bason said. The company plans to present a new CEO on May 7.

Wednesday: Net interest income and cost control will be the main focus for Swedish lenders Handelsbanken (SHBA SS) and SEB (SEBA SS). They’re expected to post NII growth of 4.3% and 5.8% year on year, respectively, although Handelsbanken may see its first sequential drop in about three years, while SEB may see another quarter of slippage. Consensus points to costs rising at a faster rate than revenue for both, BI said, adding that Handelsbanken’s cost-to-income ratio could edge toward 40%, while SEB’s ratio could exceed that.

  • Lloyds (LLOY LN) should have benefited from a slowdown in customers switching to more expensive savings accounts and recovering mortgage volumes, according to Barclays. It probably won’t announce another £450 million ($557 million) charge for possible compensation and other costs linked to a review of potentially mis-sold car loans. UBS estimates the matter could cost Lloyds about £2 billion in total. Consensus shows the net interest margin contracting to 3% this year from 3.1%.

  • Heineken (HEIA NA) may have seen beer volumes recover, if demand for its premium products followed through, said BI’s Duncan Fox. It also needs mainstream beer sales to improve, especially in Vietnam and Nigeria, where pricing pressures are easing. While input costs are softening, labor costs will be a drag on operating profit growth unless the company can achieve a better sales mix. Easter falling early this year and an extra selling day as a result of the leap year may help organic sales growth beat consensus and signal a year of “under-promising and over-delivery,” Citi analysts said.

Thursday: Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) risks disappointing if its results fail to deliver positive surprises, after an almost 50% rally in the shares over the past year, BI’s Philip Richards and Tomasz Noetzel said. While interest rate cuts might hamper revenue growth for the remainder of the year, higher fees could offset lower NII expectations and benefit the investment bank, they said. Consensus shows group revenue may fall shy of the €30 billion mark the bank is targeting this year.

  • Barclays (BARC LN) fixed-income trading revenue is expected to have slipped 15%, slightly more pronounced than the drop reported by most Wall Street rivals, consensus shows. Although the bank’s shares have jumped more than 20% since it announced a reorganization in February and promised to return at least £10 billion to shareholders, they still trade at a sharp discount to book value. CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan may discuss progress at improving the mix between debt underwriting and less capital-intensive services such as advisory — a key pillar of his plan to boost the investment bank’s profitability.

  • BNP’s (BNP FP) global markets revenue is seen dropping 8.3% to €2.54 billion, consensus that “sets a low bar that could be bettered,” BI said. French retail banking, wealth and asset management, and results in Belgium may also beat expectations. Expenses and cost of risk remain areas of concern and might not drop as much as hoped, BI said.

  • BASF’s (BAS GY) adjusted Ebitda likely fell for a seventh straight quarter amid still sluggish demand, consensus shows. But an almost 20% rally in the stock from a January low signals the market expects earnings to beat estimates as inflationary pressures ease and volumes recover, according to Deutsche Bank. Cash generation will be essential, with capital spending set to remain near multi-decade highs until 2026 and cost cuts deepening, BI said.

Friday: NatWest’s (NWG LN) 2024 interest-margin outlook could hinge on whether the lender was able to maintain its £142 billion current account base, BI’s Tomasz Noetzel said. A decline in these non-interest paying deposits can hamper structural hedges, a significant source of income for banks in recent years. Any plans for share buybacks from the UK government will also be of interest, with JPMorgan analysts seeing NatWest returning to full private ownership earlier than the Treasury’s current timeline of the end of 2026.

  • Remy Cointreau’s (RCO FP) organic sales decline likely continued in its fiscal fourth quarter. A 12% revenue slump at LVMH’s wine and spirits unit shows the sector is still struggling. Comments on inventory overhang and on a premium spirits recovery for Chinese customers will also be of interest, two “critical issues” for Remy Cointreau, said BI’s Duncan Fox.

--With assistance from Leonard Kehnscherper, Laura Malsch, Christopher Jungstedt, Paula Doenecke, Laura Alviž, Valentine Baldassari and Charlotte Hughes-Morgan.

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