Yahoo Finance Axsome (AXSM) Down 6.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM). Shares have lost about 6.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Axsome due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Axsome Q1 Loss Widens Y/Y, Revenues Beat Estimates
Axsome reported an adjusted loss of $1.00 per share for the first quarter of 2024, compared with a loss of 22 cents per share reported in the year-ago period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at a loss of $1.20 per share.
The above-adjusted loss excludes the impact of certain non-cash charges, including which the reported loss per share was $1.44 in the first quarter of 2024 compared with a loss of 26 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter.
The company reported total revenues of $75 million for the first quarter, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $70 million. Axsome had recorded revenues of $94.6 million in the year-ago period. The year-over-year decline in revenues can be attributed to a one-time upfront payment received for the out-licensing of Sunosi in certain ex-U.S. markets in the year-ago quarter.
Quarter in Detail
Total revenues in the first quarter consisted of product revenues from Sunosi and Auvelity, and royalty revenues.
Net product revenues were $74.1 million in the quarter compared with $28.6 million reported in the year-ago period. The figure beat our model estimate of $68.6 million.
Auvelity recorded sales of $53.4 million, up 240% year over year, owing to strong underlying demand. Sales of the drug beat our model estimate of $44.8 million.
Notably, around 95,000 prescriptions were recorded for Auvelity in the first quarter, reflecting a sequential increase of 12%.
Sunosi’s net product sales were $21.6 million, up 63.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Total prescriptions for Sunosi in the United States grew 14% year over year but declined 1.6% sequentially, as demand in the first quarter was adversely impacted by typical seasonality.
Royalty revenues totaled $0.9 million in the first quarter, reflecting royalties on Sunosi sales in out-licensed territories.
Research and development expenses (including stock-based compensation) amounted to $36.8 million, up 106.7% from the year-ago quarter’s level. The significant increase was due to higher costs associated with the label expansion study of Sunosi, as well as higher costs associated with clinical studies on other pipeline candidates like AXS-12, AXS-07 and AXS-14.
Selling, general and administrative expenses (including stock-based compensation) totaled $99.0 million, up almost 33.4% year over year. The increase was due to higher commercial activities for Sunosi and Auvelity and other costs.
As of Mar 31, 2024, Axsome had cash and cash equivalents worth $331.4 million compared with $386.2 million as of Dec 31, 2023.
2024 Guidance
Management believes that its cash balance of $331.4 million (as of March-end) is enough to fund future operations into cash flow positivity.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -23.74% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Axsome has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Axsome has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Axsome is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Emergent Biosolutions (EBS), a stock from the same industry, has gained 26.4%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2024 more than a month ago.
Emergent Biosolutions reported revenues of $300.4 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +82%. EPS of $0.59 for the same period compares with -$3.17 a year ago.
Emergent Biosolutions is expected to post a loss of $0.97 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
Emergent Biosolutions has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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