AUDUSD Forecast Video for 30.05.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, as it is the Memorial Day holiday in the United States. Therefore, we see fit enough conditions that people might bounce a bit. The market has bounced a bit from a significant selloff, so it makes sense that we may try to get back to the 0.66 level. The 0.66 level is the bottom of the previous consolidation area. Therefore, market memory should continue to be part of the trading situation, so I would not hesitate to fade this market if we get anywhere near there and show signs of exhaustion.
On the other hand, if the market were to turn around and start falling from here, I think we will eventually get down to the 0.64 level, an area that is the “measured move” from the previous consolidation area, and that is my target given enough time. I don’t necessarily think that we are going to get there overnight or anything. Still, it’s a situation that it certainly looks like it is only a matter of time before we see some scenario where the market will continue to see a run toward the US dollar, as it is most certainly will be the “safety asset of choice,” as people run back toward guaranteed rates.
Furthermore, the 50-Day EMA is starting to race toward the 0.66 level as well, so that could cause a significant amount of noise. With that, I think you’ve got a situation where it’s probably only a matter of time before people started running to the greenback and jumping on what would be a bit of a dead cat bounce after that massive selloff in the Aussie.
On the other hand, the 0.64 level could give way to further selling, and we could drive down to the 0.62 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of negativity longer term; therefore, I think any rally at this point shows signs of exhaustion is a selling opportunity in the future. Ultimately, this is the likelihood of further US dollar strength showing itself.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire