Advertisement
Australia markets closed
  • ALL ORDS

    8,153.70
    +80.10 (+0.99%)
     
  • ASX 200

    7,896.90
    +77.30 (+0.99%)
     
  • AUD/USD

    0.6517
    -0.0019 (-0.28%)
     
  • OIL

    83.08
    +1.73 (+2.13%)
     
  • GOLD

    2,241.60
    +28.90 (+1.31%)
     
  • Bitcoin AUD

    108,598.16
    +2,972.12 (+2.81%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    885.54
    0.00 (0.00%)
     
  • AUD/EUR

    0.6038
    +0.0007 (+0.12%)
     
  • AUD/NZD

    1.0905
    +0.0025 (+0.23%)
     
  • NZX 50

    12,105.29
    +94.63 (+0.79%)
     
  • NASDAQ

    18,277.20
    -3.65 (-0.02%)
     
  • FTSE

    7,952.62
    +20.64 (+0.26%)
     
  • Dow Jones

    39,832.92
    +72.84 (+0.18%)
     
  • DAX

    18,492.49
    +15.40 (+0.08%)
     
  • Hang Seng

    16,541.42
    +148.58 (+0.91%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    40,168.07
    -594.66 (-1.46%)
     

AUD/USD Retail FX Flip Ahead of RBA Meeting; Rate-Cut on Tap?

DailyFX.com -

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Retail FX Flip Net-Short Ahead of RBA Meeting; Rate-Cut on Tap?

- USDOLLAR Holds April Low Despite Mixed 1Q GDP Report, Core PCE in Focus.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The 2016 rally in AUD/USD appears to be getting exhausted ahead of the next topside target around 0.7860 (61.8% expansion) as a bearish divergence continues to take shape in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

  • Following the marked slowdown in Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), 13 of the 24 economists polled by Bloomberg News forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the official cash rate by 25bp to 1.75% at the May 3 interest-rate decision.

  • Expectations for additional monetary support may produce near-term headwinds for the aussie, with a break/close below 0.7580 (50% expansion) to expose the next downside region of interest around 0.7490 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7500 (61.8% expansion).

AUD/USD SSI
AUD/USD SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows a bit of back and forth in retail positioning, with the FX crowd flipped back net-short AUD/USD going into the end of the month.

  • The ratio stood at -1.04 as of April 28, with 49% of traders long AUD/USD, while open interest stands 8.2% below the monthly average.

ADVERTISEMENT

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11755.41

11795.03

11741.79

-0.31

87.34%

AUD/USD Retail FX Flip Ahead of RBA Meeting; Rate-Cut on Tap?
AUD/USD Retail FX Flip Ahead of RBA Meeting; Rate-Cut on Tap?
USDOLLAR Daily Chart
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The USDOLLAR struggled to retain the range carried over from the previous week, with the index coming into a near-term region of interest around 11,745 (50% retracement) to 11,759 (23.6% retracement).

  • Despite signs of stronger wage-growth, the weakness in household spending may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further delay its normalization cycle as it undermines the central bank’s expectation for a ‘consumer-led’ recovery in 2016.

  • The ongoing series of lower highs & lows continues to favor a bearish outlook going into May, with the next downside region of interest coming in around 11,623 (100% expansion) to 11,646 (61.8% retracement).

DailyFX Calendar
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Read More:

Emotions Run High in Silver Trade

SPX500 Technical Analysis: Higher-Low Ahead of US Earnings

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Who’s Happier? Bears or Central Bankers

AUD/USD – Will the Real Trend Please Stand Up?

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand


original source

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.