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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Move through .7784 Will Extend the Rally, Big Break Coming Under .7743

James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly better late in the trading session. The price action is being driven by two-sided news events, investor indecision and impending volatility.

The risk-on day in the stock market is helping to pull up the AUD/USD, but buyers are being a little tentative due to yesterday’s hawkish Fed minutes, an easing of tensions in the Middle East and over the potential for a trade war with China.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up earlier in the week when buyers took out .7726. If the upside momentum continues then buyers are likely to go after the next main top at .7784. The daily chart indicates there is room to the upside with .7916 the next major upside target.

A trade through .7652 will change the main trend to down. This should lead to a quick break to the next main bottom at .7642. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with .7501 the next major target.

The main range is .7501 to .8135. Its retracement zone is .7818 to .7743. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The short-term range is .7916 to .7642. Its 50% level or pivot is .7779. This price level is important to the short-term trend.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on today’s price action, the direction of the AUD/USD into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .7743.

A sustained move over .7743 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a test of .7779 to .7784. Taking out the latter could drive the Aussie into .7818.

The long-term 50% level at .7818 is the trigger point for a potential acceleration to the upside with .7916 the next major upside target.

A sustained move under .7743 will signal the presence of sellers. This is the trigger point for a potential acceleration to the downside with .7652 and .7642 the next two likely targets.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire