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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – February 8, 2018 Forecast

James Hyerczyk

The AUD/USD is trading lower shortly before the U.S. opening. Earlier in the session, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report came in at 6, the previous month was revised upward to 8.

Australian central bank Governor Philip Lowe said he doesn’t “see a strong case” for a near-term interest-rate adjustment, reiterating he isn’t obliged to follow a global withdrawal of stimulus.

Lowe also said he expects to see progress on reducing the jobless rate and moving inflation to the mid-point of its 2 percent to 3 percent target.

Lowe added that a floating exchange rate has allowed countries like Australia, which didn’t lower interest rates to the “extraordinary low levels” seen elsewhere, to retain flexibility in setting policy based on domestic factors.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the January 9 main bottom at .7807.

The AUD/USD is also down nine sessions from the .8135 main top, putting it in a position to post a closing price reversal bottom.

The main range is .7501 to .8135. Its retracement zone at .7818 to .7743 is currently being tested. If enough buyers come in on a test of this zone, we could see the reversal bottom.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7818.

A sustained move under .7818 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of a downtrending Gann angle at .7775 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could create further weakness with potential targets a Fibonacci level at .7743 and an uptrending Gann angle at .7711.

A sustained move over .7818 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum, we could see a rally into a pair of Gann angles at .7921 and .7955.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire