Australia Markets closed

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Begins Session in Window of Time for Reversal Bottom

James Hyerczyk

The AUD/USD is trading lower early Tuesday in reaction to a weaker-than-expected retail sales report and trade balance figure.

Retail Sales came in at -0.5%, below the -0.2% estimate. The previous month was revised higher to 1.3%.

The trade balance was -1.36 billion compared with a 0.25 billion forecast. The previous month was revised upward to 0.04 billion.


Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next target is the January 9 bottom at .7807. The Forex pair is down seven days from the January 26 top at .8135. This puts it in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The short-term range is .7807 to .8135. Its retracement zone is .7971 to .7923. The market is currently trading under this zone which is compounding the downside bias.

The main range is .7501 to .8135. Its retracement zone at .7818 to .7743 is the primary downside target. Buyers may step in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Based on the early price action, if downside momentum continues then we could see the selling pressure take us to at least .7818 then .7807. If .7807 fails then sell stops could take us down to .7743.

If the momentum shifts to the upside then don’t be surprised by a move into .7932 then .7971. The short-covering could increase over .7971.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire