AUD/USD Forecast Video for 29.11.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session, as we are now above the 0.66 level. The 0.66 level is an area that has been important multiple times in the past, and if we can stay above there, then it is likely that the market will try to go much higher, perhaps reaching to the 0.69 level. This is pretty hated by the idea that the 0.66 level underneath has been significant support. “Market memory” had it acting as resistance, but at this point in time we are above there. Now we have to ask questions as to whether or not the Aussie can continue to go higher?
Now that we have formed not only a move above that level, but a massive candlestick on the Monday session that blew through the 200-Day EMA, it certainly looks as if the momentum is with the Australian dollar and that the US dollar is on its back foot. With that being the case, I think you got a situation where this is a pair that could go much higher, perhaps reaching toward the 0.69 level above which is the next major resistance barrier.
This is not to suggest that the market is suddenly going to take off straight up in the air, but it does suggest that perhaps we have a short-term uptrend forming. This would make a bit of sense, because quite frankly the end of year tends to be more “risk on” than the rest of the year, especially in some assets like stocks. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Australian dollar has to be bullish, just that people tend to chase some type of performance at the end of the year, and in general it tends to be poor for the US dollar.
The interest rate situation the United States seems to be drifting a bit lower, and that obviously has its influence as well. With that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of trying to take advantage of short-term pullbacks, at least until the holiday season. If we were to turn around a breakdown below the 0.65 level, that would completely negate that theory, but right now we don’t have that likelihood.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire