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AUD/JPY to Threaten Key Support Ahead of RBA
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Talking Points
AUD/JPYapproaching confluence support ahead of RBA
Updated targets & invalidation levels
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AUD/JPY Daily
AUD/JPY120min
Technical Outlook: AUDJPY is approaching support at the lower median-line parallel extending off the July low with price action continuing to respect this near-term descending slope off the recent highs. We discussed this setup at length in today’s webinar and to start the week the focus is on this support zone at 85.55 where the 61.8% extension of the late-January decline and the February open converge on the lower parallels.
Look for interim resistance at 86.02 backed by 86.30 with bearish invalidation set to 85.52. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor selling rallies while within this formation with a break/close below confluence support at the 85-handle needed to validate a more significant reversal in the pair- such a scenario would target subsequent support objectives at 84.83 and the 78.6% retracement / lower median-line parallel at 84.46.
A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short AUDJPY- the ratio stands at -1.05 (49% of traders are long)- neutral reading
Long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 3.5% above levels seen last week
Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday but 4.6% above levels seen last week
Open interest is 1.8% higher than yesterday but 6.7% below its monthly average
While the current SSI profile continues to offer a mixed outlook for the pair, it’s worth noting that the recent increase in long-positioning on building open interest leaves the long-side vulnerable near-term.
Relevant Data Releases
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Other Setups in Play:
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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