Yahoo Finance AstraZeneca (AZN) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
We expect AstraZeneca AZN to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 27. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.47%.
The British drugmaker’s performance was impressive, with earnings beating estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.82%, on average.
AstraZeneca PLC Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
AstraZeneca PLC price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | AstraZeneca PLC Quote
AstraZeneca’s shares have increased 11.8% in the past year compared with a 3.3% rise of the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Consider
Sales of AstraZeneca’s key medicines, mainly cancer drugs — Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi — and diabetes medicine Farxiga are expected to have driven the company’s first-quarter top line backed by strong demand trends.
Our model estimates for Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi are pegged at $704.0 million, $1.51 billion and $712.8 million, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi is pegged at $709 million, $1.46 billion and $737 million, respectively.
Please note that AstraZeneca markets Lynparza in partnership with Merck MRK. AstraZeneca and Merck formed a profit-sharing deal to co-market Lynparza and Koselugo in July 2017.
AstraZeneca/Merck’s Lynparza is approved for four cancer types, ovarian, breast, prostate and pancreatic. The Merck-partnered drug is also being evaluated in an earlier-line setting for approved cancer indications.
At the onset of this year, the FDA withdrew the emergency-use authorization granted to Evusheld, AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail medicine for COVID-19. Per the agency, Evusheld does not neutralize Omicron subvariants that are in circulation and responsible for more than 90% of COVID cases in the United States. We do not expect any product sales in the country. Also, sales contribution of the COVID-19 vaccine, Vaxzevria is likely to have been minimum due to the conclusion of many initial contracts. No revenues are expected to have been recorded in the U.S. market like recent quarters.
Our model estimates Vaxzevria revenues to be $28.3 million while that of Evusheld are expected to be $253.8 million.
AstraZeneca’s other drugs, Fasenra, Calquence and newer products, the triple combo COPD treatment Breztri and lupus drug, Saphnelo (anifrolumab) are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Sales of key respiratory medicine, Symbicort are likely to have been hurt by pricing pressure in Europe and the United States and generic erosion in Japan.
Our model estimates Fasenra and Calquence revenues to be $349.1 million and $635.0 million, respectively.
Product sales of some drugs like Brilinta/Brilique and Pulmicort were hurt due to COVID-related disruptions and pricing pressure from the volume-based procurement (VBP) program in China in the past few quarters. The trend is likely to have continued in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Symbicort and Pulmicort is $591.0 million and $166.0 million, respectively.
Sales of AstraZeneca’s major legacy drugs have been declining due to rising generic competition. The trend is likely to have continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.
Sales of AstraZeneca’s Rare Disease drugs like Ultomiris and Strensiq, which were added following the Alexion acquisition, are expected to have been higher and contributed to the top line.
Sales in China are likely to have been hurt due to pricing pressure associated with the National Reimbursement Drug List and VBP programs. Collaboration revenues might have been an important contributor to the top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues is $484.0 million.
AstraZeneca expects higher operating costs, particularly SG&A in the first quarter. R&D expenses are expected in the low 20s percentage of total revenues.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for AstraZeneca in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: AstraZeneca’s Earnings ESP is +1.36% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 87 cents is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 86 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AstraZeneca currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stock to Consider
Here are some large drug stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novo Nordisk NVO has an Earnings ESP of +10.71% and a Zacks Rank #1.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has surged 26.0% in the year-to-date period. Novo Nordisk beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing the mark on one occasion. Novo Nordisk has delivered an earnings surprise of 3.00%, on average. The company will report its first-quarter results on May 4, before the opening bell.
Sanofi SNY has an Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank #2.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Sanofi’s stock has surged 16.9% in the year-to-date period. Sanofi beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing the mark on one occasion. Sanofi has delivered an earnings surprise of 7.68%, on average. The company will report its first-quarter results on Apr 27, before the opening bell.
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