Yahoo Finance ASM International NV Just Missed EPS By 9.8%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Last week, you might have seen that ASM International NV (AMS:ASM) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to €304 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €2.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.8% to hit €7.93 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ASM International after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for ASM International
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ASM International from 16 analysts is for revenues of €2.56b in 2023 which, if met, would be a modest 6.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 61% to €12.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of €12.08 in 2023. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on ASM International's earnings potential following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €368, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic ASM International analyst has a price target of €480 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €250. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ASM International's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASM International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 6.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ASM International.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around ASM International's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €368, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASM International going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - ASM International has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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