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Is Armstrong World Industries's (NYSE:AWI) 102% Share Price Increase Well Justified?

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (NYSE:AWI) share price has soared 102% in the last three years. Most would be happy with that. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 35% gain in the last three months.

See our latest analysis for Armstrong World Industries

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

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Armstrong World Industries was able to grow its EPS at 52% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 26% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:AWI Past and Future Earnings, April 16th 2019
NYSE:AWI Past and Future Earnings, April 16th 2019

It is of course excellent to see how Armstrong World Industries has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Armstrong World Industries's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Armstrong World Industries's TSR of 103% over the last 3 years is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Armstrong World Industries has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 49% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. Is Armstrong World Industries cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

We will like Armstrong World Industries better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.