APA Group's (ASX:APA) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 98% Above Its Share Price

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of APA Group (ASX:APA) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for APA Group

What's the estimated valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	AU$646.4m	AU$708.4m	AU$890.6m	AU$991.6m	AU$1.02b	AU$1.04b	AU$1.06b	AU$1.08b	AU$1.10b	AU$1.12b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x5	Analyst x4	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 2.11%	Est @ 2.02%	Est @ 1.95%	Est @ 1.91%	Est @ 1.88%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 5.2%	AU$614	AU$640	AU$764	AU$808	AU$787	AU$764	AU$740	AU$717	AU$694	AU$672

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$7.2b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$1.1b× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (5.2%– 1.8%) = AU$33b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$33b÷ ( 1 + 5.2%)¹⁰= AU$20b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$27b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$11.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 50% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at APA Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.812. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For APA Group, there are three fundamental aspects you should further research:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for APA Group you should be aware of, and 2 of them shouldn't be ignored.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for APA's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.