Anti-government 'Yes' gains ground ahead of crucial Greece poll

A new survey Friday ahead of Greece's make-or-break weekend referendum showed a swing against the government to a 'Yes' result, amid a sense of crisis fuelled by cash rationing and burgeoning protests.

The poll by Greece's Alco institute said 44.8 percent of Greeks intend to vote 'Yes' and 43.4 percent are for 'No' -- making it the first published survey to give a lead to the 'Yes' vote ahead of Sunday's ballot.

However the survey's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points meant the end result was still too close to call.

Stakes are high in the plebiscite, with EU leaders warning a 'No' would jeopardise Greece's place in the 19-nation eurozone.

But Greece's radical left government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras fiercely rejects that, and says the referendum is only about whether Greeks are willing to accept tougher austerity in return for international bailout funds.

Tsipras argues a 'No' would strengthen his hand in negotiating better terms from Greece's international creditors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB).

- Suffocating debt -

Athens wants the creditors to restructure Greece's suffocating mountain of debt, which has risen to an unsustainable 180 percent of gross domestic product despite a 2012 write-down that rid it of 107 billion euros ($119 billion in today's figures).

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis told Irish radio RTE that "the reason why negotiations stalled" last week over bailout terms was because there was no provision for further debt relief.

But EU Commission deputy president Valdis Dombrovskis, who is also commissioner for the euro, told German newspaper Die Welt in an interview: "It would be wrong to think that a 'No' would strengthen Greece's bargaining position. The opposite is true."

Some Greek voters who initially backed Tsipras's position have switched to the 'Yes' camp after seeing the reality of the situation when capital controls were ordered this week to stem a bank run, capping ATM withdrawals to 60 euros ($67) a day.

"I was going to vote 'No' because I think the Greek people are being treated with contempt. But Tsipras has made the situation so much worse, it's his fault the banks are closed," said an Athens shop assistant Suzanna Alizoti.

Greece's top administrative court, the Council of State, will on Friday rule on the legality of the referendum.

Rival demonstrations in favour of 'Yes' and 'No' have been held in the Greek capital this week, with two more -- expected to be especially large just two days before the vote -- due late Friday.

"There is no future for this country in the EU. Because of the austerity measures there is poverty, people dying in the street, committing suicide," said Marta, a 26-year-old woman taking part in a 'No' rally on Thursday.

- Would government resign? -

Several EU figures, most prominently European Parliament president Martin Schulz, believe a referendum defeat for the Greek government should lead to its resignation.

Varoufakis has said he would certainly step down as finance minister in that case, and that the rest of the government "may very well" also do so, handing power to a caretaker administration.

But Tsipras has been ambiguous, telling Greek television late Thursday he would respect the referendum's result and take the necessary steps "set out in the constitution".

As the clock ticked down to the fateful vote, the IMF on Thursday said Greece would need 60 billion euros more in bailout money to get through the next three years. It also cut the country's 2015 growth forecast to zero from 2.5 percent.

The failure by Greece to repay 1.5 billion euros to the IMF this week made it the first developed country to default to the international lender, and cut it off from future IMF funds until it settles the arrears.

On July 20, Greece looks likely to be unable to repay another 3.5 billion euros owed to the ECB.

- Confusing question -

The referendum question being posed to voters on Sunday relates to a bailout package that is no longer available to Greece, having expired on Tuesday.

The text -- which confuses many -- reads: "Should the deal draft that was put forward by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund in the Eurogroup of June 25, 2015, and consists of two parts, that together form a unified proposal, be accepted? The first document is titled 'Reforms for the Completion of the Current Programme and Beyond' and the second 'Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis'."

The ballot paper gives top billing to the 'No' box, with 'Yes' underneath.

Europe's main stock markets slipped during Friday trade as all eyes were riveted on Greece's referendum and what that might mean to investors at the beginning of next week.

"The vote seems tight," said VTB Capital economist Neil MacKinnon.

"A 'No' vote increases the chances of a Grexit (Greek exit from the euro) as the ECB would pull the plug on the Greek banks," he said.

"A Yes vote results in the resignation of the Greek government though it is not clear that this would necessarily result in a more creditor-compliant Greek administration that would sign up to the creditors' proposals quickly."