Yahoo Finance Analysts Are More Bearish On OptiNose, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPTN) Than They Used To Be
The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for OptiNose, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPTN), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business.
After the downgrade, the five analysts covering OptiNose are now predicting revenues of US$92m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 18% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 47% to US$0.48. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$122m and losses of US$0.41 per share in 2023. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for OptiNose
The consensus price target fell 22% to US$5.60, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on OptiNose, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$8.00 and the most bearish at US$4.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that OptiNose's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 51% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while OptiNose's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at OptiNose. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with OptiNose's business, like major dilution from new stock issuance in the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other risks we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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