Yahoo Finance Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) After Its Yearly Report
Last week, you might have seen that Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to €124 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €18b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Hapag-Lloyd surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €16.70 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Hapag-Lloyd
After the latest results, the consensus from Hapag-Lloyd's nine analysts is for revenues of €16.1b in 2024, which would reflect a chunky 10% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 75% to €4.13 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €16.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.39 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €103, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Hapag-Lloyd, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €150 and the most bearish at €65.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 10% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 21% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Hapag-Lloyd is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hapag-Lloyd. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Hapag-Lloyd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Hapag-Lloyd (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
