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Alamos Gold Inc.'s (TSE:AGI) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

·4-min read

Most readers would already be aware that Alamos Gold's (TSE:AGI) stock increased significantly by 12% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Alamos Gold's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Alamos Gold

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Alamos Gold is:

7.2% = US$208m ÷ US$2.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2021).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every CA$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CA$0.07 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Alamos Gold's Earnings Growth And 7.2% ROE

When you first look at it, Alamos Gold's ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 15%. In spite of this, Alamos Gold was able to grow its net income considerably, at a rate of 77% in the last five years. Therefore, there could be other reasons behind this growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

We then compared Alamos Gold's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 29% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Alamos Gold is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Alamos Gold Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Alamos Gold has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 16%, meaning that it has the remaining 84% left over to reinvest into its business. So it looks like Alamos Gold is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business, which shows in its earnings growth.

Moreover, Alamos Gold is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of six years of paying a dividend. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 15%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 8.3%.

Summary

In total, it does look like Alamos Gold has some positive aspects to its business. Despite its low rate of return, the fact that the company reinvests a very high portion of its profits into its business, no doubt contributed to its high earnings growth. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

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