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Acadia (ACAD) Up 12% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD). Shares have added about 12% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Q1 Earnings & Sales Miss Estimates

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. reported first-quarter 2023 loss of 27 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 21 cents and our estimate of a loss of 26 cents per share. In the year-ago quarter, the company incurred a loss of 70 cents per share.

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Total revenues comprised net sales of Nuplazid (pimavanserin) in the first quarter as Acadia’s second-marketed drug, Daybue (trofinetide) was launched in April 2023 in the U.S. market. Revenues from Nuplazid sales increased 3% year over year to $118.5 million in the first quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $122 million. Nuplazid sales decreased by 13.2% sequentially in the first quarter.

Nuplazid sales in the first quarter were driven by an increase in new patient starts across both specialty pharmacy and specialty distribution channels. Year-over-year demand was up approximately 2% in the reported quarter.

Total revenues were lower than our estimate of $121.7 million in the reported quarter.

Nuplazid is an FDA-approved treatment for hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease psychosis (PDP).

Quarter in Detail

Research and development (R&D) expenses in the quarter were $69.1 million, down 46.4% year over year, owing to a $60 million upfront payment made for collaboration with Stoke Therapeutics, which was recorded in the first quarter of 2022.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $101.2 million, up 4.7% year over year. The expense remained relatively steady year over year due to a reduction in spending in the PDP commercial franchise, which was offset by investments in the Daybue launch.

Acadia had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $402.9 million as of Mar 31, 2023 compared with $416.8 million as of Dec 31, 2022.

2023 Financial Guidance Reaffirmed

Acadia expects Nuplazid net sales in the range of $520-$550 million for 2023.

The company expects R&D expenses in the $235-$255 million range, while SG&A expenses are expected to be in the range of $360-$380 million in 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 6.15% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Acadia has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Acadia is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. (KRTX), a stock from the same industry, has gained 8.4%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2023 more than a month ago.

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. reported revenues of $0.65 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of

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