Dwelling values across the country have fallen 4.1 per cent this year, but there’s little cause for concern, a property expert has said.
While Sydney and Melbourne’s slowdowns are pronounced, those who bought prior to the last year are likely to have still seen their property grow in value, said managing director at buyers’ agent Propertyology, Simon Pressley.
“The truth of the matter is that the underlying fundamentals of Australian property today haven’t been better for more than a decade.”
Investment home loan rates are set to stay low for the next several years.
In fact, most economists don’t see a rate rise until 2020 and others still predict the central bank could even cut rates next year.
Residential vacancy rates have tightened and housing supply is balanced.
Vacancy rates in the majority of Australian regions have tightened in 2018, Pressley noted.
And at the same time, housing supply is generally balanced outside of Sydney and Melbourne.
“We anticipate housing supply to significantly tighten over the next couple of years. That’s an important ingredient for price growth.”
World economies are looking good.
The US recently reported record GDP growth and an unemployment rate of 4 per cent. Around the world, various economies are also in their best shape since the GFC, Pressley said.
Jobs, jobs, jobs.
The Australian manufacturing sector added 85,000 jobs in the last year alone, while free trade agreements are also set to pave the way to more employment opportunities.
The unemployment rate is also falling to around 4.75 per cent – marking the lowest rate in a decade.
And according to ABS data, there were 200,320 jobs created in the two years ending September 2018 outside the capital cities.
Tourists love us.
International visitors spent $42.5 billion in the year to June 2018, helped along by the Aussie dollar which is expected to remain below USD$0.90 for the near future.
“[It] is very encouraging for Australian export businesses and their potential to create more jobs to keep pace with rising demand.”
On the other hand…
Property analysts at research house CoreLogic note borrowers have faced tougher conditions and higher rates in recent years as macroprudential measures designed to curb excessive investor activity took affect.
While these measures have largely been repealed, the impacts linger.
“Accessing credit has become incrementally more difficult and where investors and interest-only borrowers are having to pay higher mortgage rates,” research analyst Cameron Kusher said.
He said the findings of the Royal Commission into the banking sector have the potential to trigger further softening.
However Kusher’s forecast pales in comparison to Aussie Home Loans’ John Symonds’.
Speaking earlier this year, he warned that changes to negative gearing would be akin to detonating a “nuclear bomb” on the Australian property market and economy by extension.
The federal election, slated for April or May next year, will see Labor promise to reform negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.
The changes would apply to new property investors and would see property investors only gain negative gearing benefits when investing in newly built dwellings.
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