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As the 2024 US presidential election lies just five months away, Commerzbank AG Head of FX Research Ulrich Leuchtmann joins Catalysts to discuss how markets are preparing for the historic face-off. Leuchtmann explains that when Donald Trump was elected in 2016, the dollar became stronger. However, he warns, "This all could be ruined if Trump in any way would materially hamper the Fed's independence. And we all know we have seen plans going into this direction." He notes that if the market is pricing in this risk, "then it certainly would be US dollar negative." He adds, "the most important part from the FX market perspective is Fed's independence. Will they run an interest rate policy which is mainly targeted on containing inflation risks? And this is something which would be good for the dollar, but on the other hand, if the Fed would be more political under a new chair, then this might be problematic and this might then cause US dollar weakness." For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts. This post was written by Melanie Riehl