Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX:TAH)

Key Insights

• Tabcorp Holdings' estimated fair value is AU$0.90 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• With AU$0.75 share price, Tabcorp Holdings appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• The AU$0.86 analyst price target for TAH is 4.4% less than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX:TAH) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Tabcorp Holdings

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	AU$159.5m	AU$200.2m	AU$222.7m	AU$146.0m	AU$135.0m	AU$129.1m	AU$126.0m	AU$124.6m	AU$124.5m	AU$125.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -4.38%	Est @ -2.42%	Est @ -1.05%	Est @ -0.08%	Est @ 0.59%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0%	AU$148	AU$172	AU$177	AU$107	AU$91.9	AU$81.3	AU$73.5	AU$67.3	AU$62.3	AU$58.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.0b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$125m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.2%) = AU$2.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$2.2b÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)¹⁰= AU$1.0b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$2.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$0.8, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tabcorp Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.269. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Tabcorp Holdings

Strength

• Debt is well covered by cash flow.

Weakness

• Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.

• Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

• Forecast to reduce losses next year.

• Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.

• Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.

• Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.

Threat

• Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Tabcorp Holdings, there are three further items you should further research:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Tabcorp Holdings that you should be aware of.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for TAH's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.