Yahoo Finance Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On ConocoPhillips' (NYSE:COP) First-Quarter Report
Last week, you might have seen that ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.2% to US$122 in the past week. ConocoPhillips missed revenue estimates by 3.2%, coming in atUS$14b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.15 beat expectations, coming in 4.8% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips
After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering ConocoPhillips are now predicting revenues of US$60.2b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 5.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 4.6% to US$8.61 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$60.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.09 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$142, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ConocoPhillips analyst has a price target of US$166 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$112. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that ConocoPhillips' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.0% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ConocoPhillips is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ConocoPhillips. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ConocoPhillips analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with ConocoPhillips , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
